Wonky Muse
Wonky Muse

June 3, 2006

What Makes For A Midterm Earthquake

Larry Sabato says one or more of these factors do:

  • Exceptional presidential poll ratings (either unusually low or high)
  • Foreign war (popular or unpopular)
  • Sour economy
  • Major scandal
  • Intense hot-button social, domestic issues

    Of all these factors, he points to presidential popularity as the most significant. He concludes with:


  • With five months to go before November, can every piece of this analysis be transformed? It's certainly possible, but it's also not very likely. The problems bedeviling Bush and the GOP may get a bit better or a little worse, b ut they appear to be intrinsic to this election year. Therefore, the only real question is how many seats the Democrats will gain in the Congress and the statehouses, not if they will gain.
    The Republicans are toast.

    Come senators, congressmen
    Please heed the call
    Don't stand in the doorway
    Don't block up the hall
    For he that gets hurt
    Will be he who has stalled
    There's a battle outside
    And it is ragin'.
    It'll soon shake your windows
    And rattle your walls
    For the times they are a-changin'.

    -- Bob Dylan

    posted at 10:35 PM by Wonky Muse

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    "Sapere Aude."
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    Wonk (noun): def. A political nerd. Know spelled backwards.

    Wonky Muse is the other Filipino American female political blogger. The sane, liberal one.


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